DVQ 3.0: The latest evolution in fantasy football draft strategy

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In movie trailer voiceover voice:

In a world where the third time seldom is the charm, when source material often devolves into convoluted chaos, when the expansion of combinatorial storylines undermine the value of the product, a madman has defied the odds. But not just any madman, a Fantasy Madman.

In the fight to engineer a world-beating system to fantasy football draft strategy, the Madman has ignored complacency while avoiding the pitfalls of overcomplication. He has identified the confusing complexity of his past evaluations and has taken action. The days of sliding scales are over. The era of required cross-referencing player ratings is a thing of the past. This is a new world of player rankings.

This is the DVQ 3.0.

Sometimes, simpler is better.

We’ve seen it before: a disappointing third installment of a beloved franchise. “The Dark Knight” trilogy’s weakest entry was the third. “Spider-man 3” was a disaster, as well as the third “X-Men” or “Matrix” movies — the list of part-three disappointments is long. Heck, a third presidential term isn’t even allowed.

But the Madman, he perseveres. Past incarnations of the draft value equation (DVQ) have been functional but admittedly overly complex. With this, the third edition, we make it easier. This third entry is more “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” than “Godfather Part 3.” It is the pinnacle of the DVQ thus far.

In the past, the DVQ addressed draft value with a sliding scale. Each player was evaluated based on projected results compared with their average draft position. It worked; we’re proud. But it wasn’t as helpful as we wanted. The ratings varied based on where in the draft you were targeting a player, and it admittedly required cross-referencing to understand player-to-player comparisons.

But that was like going to a restaurant that only serves dishes a la carte. Even if the food is great, “Give me a No. 8” is easier and quicker than surfing through an entire menu for individual items.

This season, the new DVQ 3.0 lets you simply order a full meal. It gauges each player’s value independently then assigns a draft position rating. The number reflected in each player rating is the spot in the draft at which the Madman projects the best value. Note: There is a parabolic curve near the top, where there is greater separation in individual projections, thus a greater separation between DVQ ratings.

So when you see 16.9 beside Jimmy Catchgood, that is the spot in the draft at which the Madman believes that player’s projected-point total agrees with the value of that draft pick. By shifting our evaluation to this paradigm, it accomplishes multiple tasks with one rating.

It shows where you should target a player. It will include clusters of players with similar ratings, which reveal the mash-up of similar values. It also will unveil tier cliffs, where there is a substantial divide in player ratings. And it does all of this with one number. One number that conveys actionable information. One number that simultaneously separates and groups players of varying or similar values. One number to rule them all.

So now that you know this, how do you employ the DVQ 3.0 in your personal draft strategy? First, no plan is foolproof. If there is a player you adamantly want on your roster, and you don’t think they will be there when you pick again, take them when you can.

Christian McCaffreyAP

Use the DVQ as a guide. For example: You want Wilhelm Runningwell on your roster, and he has a DVQ of 29.3. You’re picking with the 22nd pick, and you don’t think Wilhelm will last that long, then take him. But, say, you really want that player, and his average draft position (ADP) is drastically higher than the DVQ rating, then perhaps you should re-evaluate that choice.

For example: Christian McCaffrey has an ADP of 31.7 in a 12-team PPR (points per reception) redraft league, but a DVQ of 89.9. Chances are, if you really want McCaffrey, you will have to pick him well ahead of where the DVQ recommends. The Madman says wait. The Madman says that player is being overvalued. The Madman says there are more reliable options at the point in the draft when McCaffrey’s ADP indicates he will go. The Madman says, you must be mad!

The short story is: Play the odds. And the DVQ 3.0 is a method to convey those odds. We’ve made it more simple to follow. We’ve made it more universally informative. We’ve made it easier.

This is the “Bourne Ultimatum” of third installments. This is a “Christmas Vacation” of fantasy advice. This is the DVQ 3.0.

Sometimes, simpler is better.



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